The Significance of the Fred McGriff Trade

 

Fred McGriff and Tony Fernandez were both dealt to the San Diego padres on December 5th, 1990. In return, Toronto received Roberto Alomar and Joe Carter. The obvious significance is that Toronto received 2 key components of their back-to-back World Series victories.  In hind-sight, this is arguably considered the best and most important deal in Blue Jays team history.  

The significance for me?  On paper, at least at the time, it should have been considered the worst deal in Toronto team history. 

In 1990, "Crime Dog" Fred McGriff was coming into his prime and proving himself to be an MVP calibre player. He had just finished his 3rd season with over 30 home runs (35 HRs in 1990), and he had just finished his first season with a .300 AVG and .400 OBP. At only 27 years of age, he appeared to still have his best years left ahead.  He was exactly the first baseman that every team dreams of, and there was no obviously equivalent alternate 1st base option. John Olerud got his first real playing time in 1990, and stats were ok... but a .265 average from a rookie doesn't exactly scream, "Make way for the new guy!".

 

Additionally, Tony Fernandez, coming into his prime at 28 years old, was a 4-time gold glove short-stop with a proven ability to consistently produce near a .300 AVG.  Should they lose Fernandez, Toronoto had no obvious SS replacement, as Manuel Lee had not demonstrated to that point in his career that he was capable of Fernandez-quality play.

In comparison to McGriff, Joe carter was 3 years older.  Carter's career average and power numbers projected to be lesser. At the end of 1990, Carter was coming off a season with a .232 AVG, sub .400 SLG and 24 HR season. Nothing in the stat lines suggest he could be packaged for an MVP quality candidate. With regards to Alomar's stats line, quite frankly, he should have been considered a nearly negligible component by the average fan.  A young prospect that COULD one-day play as well as Fernandez.  Similar averages. No gold-gloves.

 

I had no opinion at the time.  At 10 years old, I knew I liked Fred McGriff because I had his baseball card. Had I been equipped with baseball knowledge and an understanding of stats-lines at that time, I would have lost my mind I'm sure.  Looking at those stats in hind-sight, I can't believe anyone in Toronto would even remotely consider that trade... let alone a Hall-of-Famer Pat Gillick.  But he pulled off a statistically terrible deal that ended up as the Jays best trade of all-time.

 

As a rabid fan, armed with a couple decades of distant baseball knowledge, I sometimes feel like I can judge my favourite teams actions and transactions with a fair degree of insight. It's fun to predict and project, and analyze moves and their value. But the McGriff trade is a clear demonstration that what's obvious to me is not necessarily the truth, and that the people employed by the Blue Jays generally deserve patience and understanding in all things Blue Jays.  Because obviously there are variables not visible to the average fan (or the press), and the right moves might actually be the ones that would cause me to lose my mind as a fan. Hence, the significance of this blog title.

Maybe I should have called this blog 'Hiring Gibbons', but I'll stick with 'Trading McGriff'.